Selective memory and mindfulness (part 2)

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Quote of the day: "Before criticizing a man, always walk a mile in his shoes. This way, when you do criticize him, you are a mile away...and you have his shoes" unknown


Let’s finish up our scenario from the other day, when my buddy was frustrated about raising AK late in a S&G and questioning the profitability of it since he was always called by 44. I was suggesting that he was simply suffering from selective memory, since anyone who has played S&Gs accepts that this must be a profitable play.

While we can get good reads on our opponents in many forms and situations in poker by bets, actions, mannerisms, etc., the later stages of an online S&G lends itself to “one-move” poker. Because of the small stack/blind ratios, we cannot use probing bets or analyze actions of our opponents to narrow our range of his hand very much. Hopefully we are at least aware of opponents who may be capable of limping with a hand like AA or KK in these spots, but to differentiate with any certainty an opponent who limps with AJ late in a S&G from an opponent who limps with 44 is nearly impossible. But, in the same sense, they have no way to know if they should interpret our all-in push as AK or 88. They usually will justify themselves by putting you on the hand they have the best chance to beat. If they have 44 they assume you have AK, and if they have AJ they assume you are raising 88. So, if you simply push both of those hands against these players, you cannot go wrong, and they will be in a losing proposition by limping/calling with AJ and 44. If it is a losing strategy for them, then it is a winning strategy for us.

First of all, the player who limps with AJ and 44 will not always call the push. It is just that our selective memory remembers the times he calls and beats us, while disregarding the blinds/limps we steal when he folds. Even if he folds only rarely, we are at a significant advantage by picking up the blinds plus his limp. These are chips that we win without a fight, and this “fold-equity” is the first part of our profitable equation.

But even when he calls we make a sound profit. If our opponent calls with 44 he is about 54% to beat us when we have AK and about 20% when we have 88. When he calls with AJ, he is about 44% against our 88 or 25% against our AK. Overall, he will win an average of only 36% of the time when he calls and we will win 64% of the time. Adding our fold equity to our 64/36 edge when we are called, we have a huge advantage on this play.

Obviously, this scenario has been simplified, and you can take it to other levels by factoring in other hands to see how far down you can make this play and show a profit. The results with hands like AQ/AJ/lower pocket pairs etc. will differ depending on the calling tendencies of your opponents. The more fold equity you have (how often your opponent folds compared to how many chips are won when he folds) and the less likely he is trying to trap you with a high pocket pair, the looser your raising standards can be.

While I’m not breaking any new ground by suggesting making these raises when the blinds are large, the real lesson to take away here is that it is only because of our selective memory that we might question this play. It is just another distraction our mind gives us during the game of poker game. The more distractions you can ignore, the more “mindful” you can become, and the more you can use that mindfulness to make correct decisions at the poker table.